The hot start to the playoff game selection cooled off quickly last weekend. It wasn’t a bad weekend, but it wasn’t a good one either.
I went 2-2 straight up, 2-2 against the spread in our expert picks from CBSSports.com, and 2-3 on my best bets as part of the Pick Six Podcast.
I was not expecting that. I picked the New York Giants to cover against the Philadelphia Eagles which was a terrible choice. I also picked the Dallas Cowboys to cover against the San Francisco 49ers, a game I thought Dallas would win and that seemed like a push until a late 49ers field goal. Oh well. I got the gift of Jacksonville’s late field goal against the Chiefs to get that coverage.
It all evens out. But after the 4-2 ATS week at Super Wild Card Weekend, I’m now 6-4 for the postseason. Last week I took all the dogs with me. Not this week.
So let’s hope for a championship game sweep to ensure a postseason winning record.
San Francisco 49ers at the Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, 3 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
Featured Game | Philadelphia Eagles vs. San Francisco 49ers
This is a game between two physical teams that have good running games and good defensive fronts. That means it will be decided up front, no matter how many offensive playmakers are on the field.
The Eagles impressed in blowing out the Giants last week while the 49ers narrowly won at home to Dallas. San Francisco’s offense had some troubles in this game, but Brock Purdy got it going after a slow start and won his seventh straight win as a starter. However, this is more of a challenge as he travels against a better team, his first playoff start on the road. Not only that, he faces a defense that led the NFL with 70 in sacks, two off the record. They also come from all spots, with four players having 10 or more sacks. Notice that the Eagles are attacking the right side of the 49ers’ offensive line, the weaker side.
The Eagles offense had another great rushing day against the Giants, which is the foundation of their offense. Jalen Hurts can throw it, but they need to be able to execute it here. That’s why their top-notch offensive line is key. You must push in the running game and keep Nick Bosa and his gang away from hurts when they throw. The 49ers’ linebackers can run and mark, which is a must against the Eagles’ offense. Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw are special. You must be in this one.
But I’m looking for hurts to outplay Purdy and take the Eagles to the Super Bowl. The Eagles’ scrimmage and pass rush will decide this game.
Choose: Eagles 30, 49ers 21
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Featured Game | Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The big issue here is the health of Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. After spraining an ankle against Jacksonville last week, will he be able to move? If not, what does that mean for the Chief’s offense since he’s doing so much damage off schedule and out of the pocket?
Kansas City’s offense did some good things when he returned from injury against Jacksonville, but he certainly looked limited in terms of mobility. That will matter against a Bengals defense that has so many moving parts and can blitz from anywhere. They’ve done a great job against him late in the last three games they’ve played in. The Jaguars didn’t chase Mahomes enough after he injured his ankle, but you can bet the Bengals will, even if that’s not the strategy they used to beat him in the title game last year. They often went after Josh Allen in their upset win last week.
In that game, Joe Burrow and offense found success moving the football. An offensive line three starters short played well as the Bengals hit some big shots with Joe Mixon and Burrow in the passing game. Mixon hasn’t played in the regular season game between these teams this season, but he’ll be big in this one. The Chiefs can make it past quarterback after registering 55 sacks this season, which is a bounty for running the ball and protecting the Bengals, who could have some of those offensive linemen back.
The Bengals have beaten the Chiefs three times in a row, including the AFC Championship Game last January and a regular season game this season. Burrow seems to enjoy the big moments. I expect him to play well here while Mahomes’ limited mobility will play a role. That’s important and that’s why the Bengals are going to their second straight Super Bowl.
Choose: Bengal 27, chiefs 24