Behind the excitement (technically the Atlantic spray) over the Chinese spy balloon shot down by an American fighter on February 4th, we are beginning to glimpse the underlying strategic issues. And the questions. The US Navy has recovered “considerable debris” from the equipment carried by the balloon: “including all the sensors and electronic parts and large parts of the structure,” says the Norad command. With this evidence, Americans are confident they can publicly nail China, which was caught red-handed in a major spy operation just as Antony Blinken was preparing to leave for Beijing, the first foreign minister to make the trip since 2018. Mission aimed to stabilize stormy relations between the two superpowers: “to give a bottom to the descent”, in the words of Blinken.
It has been suspended. But there is already talk of a possible date on neutral ground, in Munich, where the Security Conference will be held from February 17-19, a strategic event that will see both Blinken and his Chinese counterpart, the head of politics, as foreigners are registered exchange of the Communist Party Wang Yi. The indiscretion comes from American sources. If the Munich meeting is not possible, the next opportunity would be on the sidelines of G-20 foreign ministers next month in New Delhi.
It’s good that the rumors of a possible meeting between the two have surfaced so few days after the spy balloon incident. There are no illusions, however: the two superpowers will continue to spy on one another, suspect one another, and challenge one another in all sorts of ways.
The rush to resume dialogue may also signal the weakness of the two presidents. Joe Biden, under pressure from domestic politics (not just the Republican opposition), had to order the sensational police operation in the American skies after discovering that Chinese balloons had been violating US airspace for years with impunity. Biden had to order the use of missiles to shoot down the balloon and then the “unidentified objects” so as not to appear weak, Washington political scientists say. But the blinking summit in Beijing was mostly in the interest of Xi Jinping, who needs to get China’s economy back on track and knows he can’t do without trade ties, at least with the US and the West.
People’s Republic diplomacy had undoubtedly expended great energy organizing the Blinken mission. Why jeopardize political maneuvering with spy games? A bad example of a “malfunction of the decision-making process in Beijing,” a “political short-circuit rather than a conspiracy,” says Rana Mitter, a professor of Chinese politics and history at Oxford. And he explains that the opacity of the Chinese system means that different actors play their roles without knowing that of the other comrades.
So: espionage would have sent the last balloon towards the US in a ruthless action, unaware that Xi’s diplomacy was eagerly awaiting blinking. Bad organization for the man we envision is superpower China in control.
Conclusion: Both Biden and Xi have weaknesses and it is more urgent than ever that they resume their regular face-to-face consultations.