And Brazil starts the race in the second round. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Jair Bolsonaro (PL) go into the decisive duel with a small numerical advantage for the former president, but which reveals a country that, through a rivalry that fostered political violence unprecedented in the era of democracy, is completely shattered. .
However, the game is different now. There are only two candidates, television time is evenly divided, television debates are becoming more focused, and state elections have already been set in some states, two of which are the most populous in the country: Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro. Where there is no second round for state governments, presidential candidates will have warm platforms unaffected by local politics. Where disputes remain, Lula and Bolsonaro will surely have privileged seats in their allies’ stands in search of the local vote.
The presidential race in the three most populous states, two without a second round (MG and RJ) and one with (SP), will be crucial to define this final phase. For example, in Minas Gerais, despite his proximity to Bolsonaro and the Novo’s hostility to the PT, Romeu Zema acted pragmatically by avoiding declaring explicit support for the president throughout the first round due to Lula’s high popularity. The PT beat Bolsonaro in Minas Gerais, where the governor, his opponent, was reelected, with a large segment of voters scoring the onetwo between Lula and Zema.
In this second round, the governor of Minas Gerais is free to express his support for Bolsonaro without incurring electoral risks and/or harm to his party’s proportional candidates. However, the structure that mobilized the state campaign has already been dismantled, reducing the potential impact of that support. But in any case, the support of the reelected Zema will be more effective than the support of the defeated Alexandre Kalil (PSD) for Lula.
In Rio de Janeiro, where Cláudio Castro (PL) was reelected in the first ballot and Bolsonarism has a strong social base, especially among evangelicals, the trend is that Castro, from the same party as Bolsonaro, is now making every effort to be reelected will. Election of the current President. . The PT will have to look for strength in a context where it managed to form a broad alliance with Marcelo Freixo’s PSB, which even included the PSDB, but failed to embrace the strength of Bolsonarianism with the people of Rio to face de Janeiro.
In São Paulo, where Fernando Haddad (PT) and Tarcísio de Freitas (Republican) are in the second round of voting, both will surely nationalize the municipal election even further, as they rely on their political sponsors to maximize their chances of victory. It remains to be seen how the PSDB and their losing candidate, Rodrigo Garcia, will behave. Targeted by both Haddad and Tarcísio in the first phase, Rodrigo is not allowed to speak out or declare his support without being directly involved in a campaign. With the break with former São Paulo mayor Gilberto Kassab prompting the PSD to support Tarcísio, the governor would now have more reason to side with the PT than to ally with Bolsonarismo the trauma from “BolsoDoria” is still alive in the toucans nest.
But there is still an advantage for PT Haddad to seek support from Garcia. Negotiate with Rio Grande do Sul PT to support Eduardo Leite (PSDB) in the second round against Onyx Lorenzoni (PL). This would solve two problems. Leite would count on weight support from PT Edegar Pretto, who finished third by a very narrow margin. In the event of an agreement, Lula would also have an important platform in the dispute over Rio Grande do Sul. If this does not happen, Bolsonaro will have a platform in the state dispute, Lula will not. On the side of Bolsonarianism, Jair Bolsonaro, very picky in the Northeast region, will remain without a platform without approaching the ACM Neto in Bahia, which competes with the PT in the second round Bahian succession.
The dispute in São Paulo, the country’s most populous state, is bound to go through national elections because it directly mirrors the dispute between Lula and Bolsonaro and Tarcísio and Haddad. However, the risk of the national agenda overlapping with the local one is inevitable. This helps limit the space for programmatic debates and, as is usual, brings not the proposals but the accusatory clashes that have marked these elections and do not contribute at all to democracy.
TRENDS / DEBATES
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