Last year, Dodik celebrated his birthday with a huge Serbian flag in a suburb of the Bosnian capital Sarajevo, which was part of the Republic of Srpska. With these symbols, Dodik sends signals – internally to strengthen his position of power, and externally as a clear stance and provocation towards the US and the EU.
Dodik finds supporters in Russia, Hungary and Serbia. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic promised fireworks in Belgrade on Tuesday night to mark the anniversary – at the same time as in Republika Srpska. Dodik's aim is not only to separate Republika Srpska from Bosnia-Herzegovina, but also to join Serbia as a further step.
AP/Radivoje Pavicic Dodik took part in a parade marking the 32nd anniversary of the Republic of Srpska in the Bosnian city of Banja Luka on Tuesday
US fighter jets as a signal against secession
Dodik has long threatened to separate Republika Srpska from the national structure. A few days ago, he announced that he wanted to remove responsibility for elections in Republika Srpska from the State Election Commission. He also wanted to separate the competences of the areas of taxation, justice, security and defense from the State as a whole. So far he has not implemented the threats. But they remain standing.
The US launched fighter jets on Monday in response to celebrations of the banned anniversary. The US Embassy in Sarajevo told the Guardian that this was a “demonstration of US commitment” to Bosnia’s territorial integrity. It was also emphasized that Washington would act if there were attempts to secede from Bosnia.
The West’s “deterrence problem.”
Pressure from the West has so far been largely ineffective. Bosnia expert Haris Imamovic told the Guardian that the West had a “deterrence problem”: “These Western decision-makers simply do not have deterrence mechanisms. They don’t have hard power.”
APA/AFP/Elvis Barukcic Western pressure against RS president Dodik has so far had little effect
Dodik is already subject to US sanctions, but his separatist threats continue. In the interview with Portal, Dodik classified the sanctions against him as “part of the hybrid war waged against Republika Srpska”.
Treaty of Dayton
The treaty ended the Bosnian War and divided the country into two semi-autonomous entities, the Republika Srpska and the Bosnian-Croat Federation, under a central government, and the Brcko District as a special administrative region. The International High Representative (OHR) monitors compliance with the treaty.
Dodik also reacted unimpressed to the US fighter jets on Monday – they would contribute to the anniversary celebrations. Marina Vulovic, an expert on Southeast Europe at the German Science and Policy Foundation (SWP), expects Dodik to continue testing the West's limits in his separatist policies.
Conflict with High Representative
This can be clearly seen in Dodik's open conflict with the High Representative, currently the former German politician Christian Schmidt. After the anniversary celebrations of Republika Srpska in January 2023, he said that something like this would no longer happen in the future. The celebrations took place this year as in previous years. In June, Dodik banned the implementation of decisions of the GAR and the Bosnian Constitutional Court in Republika Srpska.
This landed him in court. In July, Schmidt amended the criminal law, according to which a violation of the constitution as well as GAR decisions could lead to prison sentences of between six months and five years for responsible officials. Dodik was accused of “failure to comply” with the High Representative’s instructions. The trial began in early December – before a court that also does not recognize Dodik. Deutsche Welle spoke of a “test of Schmidt and his cabinet’s authority.”