- MbS reminds the US who is in charge of the region
- Mbs is a player Washington cannot ignore or disavow
- He forges connections with other powers and reshapes relationships with his enemies
- It reaffirms Saudi Arabia’s position as an energy giant in the oil-dependent world
May 24 (Portal) – Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, once branded as a pariah, took center stage as master of ceremonies last week as Arab states reinstated Syria into the Arab League, signaling Washington that calls the shots in the region.
His effusive greeting of President Bashar al-Assad at the Arab summit with kisses on the cheeks and a warm hug defied US disapproval of Syria’s return to the fold and capped a turn in the prince’s fortunes spurred by geopolitical realities.
The prince, known as MbS, is trying to re-establish Saudi Arabia as a regional power by capitalizing on his place at the helm of an energy giant in an oil-dependent world being devastated by the war in Ukraine.
Shunned by Western states after the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi by a Saudi hit squad in 2018, the prince has now emerged as a player Washington can neither ignore nor deny, but must deal with on a transactional basis.
MbS is skeptical of US promises on Saudi Arabia’s security and tired of the scolding tone. Instead, he is building relationships with other world powers and, ignoring Washington’s dismay, rebuilding his relationships with their common enemies.
His carefree self-confidence on the world stage was not only shown in his reception of Assad. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy came to the meeting in Jeddah and MbS offered to mediate between Kiev and fellow oil producer Moscow.
However, Saudi Arabia is still militarily dependent on the US, which saved it from a possible invasion of Iraq by Saddam Hussein in 1990, which oversees Iranian military activities in the Gulf and supplies Riyadh with most of its weapons.
However, with Washington seemingly less involved in the Middle East and less receptive to Riyadh’s fears, MbS pursues its own regional policies with less apparent deference to the views of its most powerful ally.
“This is a strong signal to America that we are reshaping and reshaping our relationship without you,” Gulf Research Center chairman Abdulaziz al-Sager said of the summit.
“He’s not getting what he wants from the other side,” Sager added, saying Saudi Arabia’s alliances with regional enemies were based on Riyadh’s approach to regional security.
DIPLOMATIC OFFENSIVE
MbS’s position was strengthened last year when Western economies turned to Saudi Arabia to help tame an oil market destabilized by the war in Ukraine. This provided MbS with an opportunity to launch a diplomatic offensive that also included high-profile appearances at summit meetings.
These efforts were aided when Washington declared MbS immune from prosecution for Khashoggi’s assassination, even though he was directly implicated by US intelligence.
A visit by US President Joe Biden last July had already demonstrated Riyadh’s return to influence: the American leader returned empty-handed, while the prince publicly flaunted US commitment to Saudi Arabia’s security.
Saudi Arabia’s shift away from dependence on the United States, meanwhile, became clear when China brokered a settlement between Riyadh and its nemesis Iran this year after years of hostility.
The deal was not struck from a position of Saudi strength: Iran’s allies were stronger than those of the kingdom in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, and held most of Yemen’s settled territory.
Still, it showed Riyadh’s ability to limit its losses and work with US rivals and enemies to bolster its regional interests, such as by cooling off the Yemen war in which Saudi forces have been mired since 2015.
Meanwhile, the prince has improved ties with Turkey and ended the boycott of Qatar, a neighboring country he was considering invading in 2017, diplomats and Doha officials said.
“In the last three years, the hatchet has been buried and relations restored,” Saudi columnist Abdulrahman Al-Rashed told Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper.
TRANSACTIONAL RELATIONSHIP
A Gulf official said the new, more direct transactional relationship with the United States replaced the old oil-to-defense model because Riyadh faced a more insecure security umbrella after the 2011 Arab uprisings.
A senior State Department official said the relationship was “an important eight-decade relationship that spans generations, between governments in our own country and between leaders in Saudi Arabia.”
“We have diverse interests when it comes to our relationship with Saudi Arabia… Our policies and engagement will be aimed at ensuring that our relationship remains solid and capable of meeting our shared challenges ahead.”
Riyadh assumed Washington had abandoned its old allies during the revolts and might also abandon the Al Saud dynasty. At the same time, it was believed that the US push for a nuclear deal with Tehran had prompted Washington to ignore the increasing activities of Iranian proxies in the region, which Riyadh sees as a threat.
This impression has strengthened. A Saudi source close to the ruling inner circle cited what he saw as lax enforcement of sanctions on Iran and a disengagement in Syria, where a small US contingent has denied territory to Iranian allies.
“I think that countries in the region will therefore do what is best for them,” he said.
Meanwhile, Riyadh was angered that the US ended its support for Saudi operations in Yemen after Washington repeatedly urged the kingdom to take responsibility for its own security.
Without direct American intervention or support for its own military efforts, Riyadh had little choice but to strike a deal with Iran, even if it angered Washington, the source said.
“This is a consequence of the US actions,” he added.
Each side has a list of requests that the other is unwilling to accommodate, the Gulf official said.
However, both sides may have little choice but to put their grudges aside.
While the kingdom sees the US security umbrella as weakened, it still sees it as vital to Saudi Arabia’s defense. Western states, meanwhile, have recalled that Riyadh’s influence in a volatile oil market requires them to put their concerns aside and come to terms with the de facto ruler and future king.
writing by Samia Nakhoul; Edited by Angus McDowall
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