The Turkish parliament ratified Sweden's membership in NATO on Tuesday. Following this overturning of Ankara's veto, Hungary is now the only member country of the organization that has not agreed to the Nordic country's accession to the Atlantic Alliance. Why is Viktor Orban putting the brakes on Stockholm's candidacy? Decryption.
Published on: January 24, 2024 – 8:00 p.m
4 mins
After the Turkish parliament gave the green light on Tuesday, January 23, Hungary is now the only NATO member country that has not agreed to Sweden's membership in the Atlantic Alliance. The Nordic country submitted its application at the same time as neighboring Finland, which joined the organization in April 2023 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
However, speaking on X on Wednesday, a day after Turkey's vote, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban assured that his government “supports the Swedish candidacy.” During a telephone conversation with NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg, the nationalist leader also assured that he would “keep calling.” [son] Parliament should complete ratification at the earliest possible date.
The day before, Viktor Orban had also invited Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson to Hungary for “talks”. However, the Swedish government declined an invitation on the grounds that their country had no reason to negotiate with Hungary.
Orban is playing for time
“I think that Viktor Orban was surprised by this Swedish refusal and that he measured the isolation of Budapest with the lifting of the Turkish veto. “Hungary remains the only country blocking Sweden’s accession to NATO,” estimates Eszter Karacsony, specialist for Hungary and project manager at IFRI (French Institute for International Relations). “And the question is not yet on the agenda of the Hungarian Parliament,” she specifies.
Despite Budapest's general approval of Sweden's NATO accession, Viktor Orban has been hesitating for many months. Approval “will only be decided by the Hungarian Parliament… when lawmakers decide the time has come. They are not very willing to do this,” he said. An ambiguous position, while “his party, Fidesz, holds two thirds of the seats in the Hungarian Parliament and the majority of MPs always follow the Prime Minister’s orders. They have never opposed him since he came to power in 2010,” recalls Eszter Karacsony.
Stubbornness and blackmail
It is clear to many observers that Viktor Orban wants to slow down the Hungarian parliament's ratification of Sweden's accession to NATO. For Paul Gradvohl, historian, professor at the University of Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne and specialist in Hungary, one of the reasons is none other than the position of the Swedish government, which “does not hide the fact that it is worried about the authoritarian tendency. “Hungarian rule,” he explains.
In addition, the Hungarian head of state is demanding compensation in return for his green light. Like Turkey, which received from Stockholm a tightening of legislation against certain Kurdish groups that Ankara considers terrorist, in particular the Kurdistan Workers' Party, but also the promise from Washington of a possible delivery of F-16 aircraft to Ankara.
Also read Sweden's NATO membership: What has Erdogan achieved?
“Budapest has developed a capacity for 'blackmail' against its partners in the European Union and NATO,” analyzes Jacques Rupnik, historian, political scientist and research director emeritus at CERI/Sciences Po. During the European Council meeting in mid-December, the Hungarian Prime Minister managed to secure the release of a tranche of 10 billion euros of Community funds that had been blocked by Brussels due to Budapest's “non-compliance with the rule of law”. This was a concession by the EU to avoid Hungary's direct opposition to the start of accession negotiations with Ukraine and the country's financial support of 50 billion euros.
“I think that Viktor Orban is currently trying to get a promise of abstention from the Swedes in case the EU wants to sanction Hungary for possible violations of the rule of law, the independence of the judiciary or the media,” continues Jacques Rupnik.
Fear of isolation and support for Russia
So far, however, Hungary has been able to count on Poland's solidarity. But the conservative and nationalist PiS party in power was defeated on October 15 after a pro-European coalition won parliamentary elections.
According to observers, with this delay the nationalist leader is also trying to give assurances to his ally, Russian President Vladimir Putin. Unlike other NATO countries, Hungary does not supply weapons to Ukraine. The country also blocked the adoption of European sanctions against the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill, in June 2022, recalls Paul Gradvohl. The researcher believes that Viktor Orban, hoping for a Russian victory, “is doing everything to slow down aid to Ukraine, and this blockade is an example. He is trying to buy time and hopes to hold off the extension of NATO for a few more weeks or a few months.