TCU fails to secure a college football playoff berth in OT’s loss to Kansas State in the Big 12 title game

ARLINGTON, TEXAS - DECEMBER 03: TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Max Duggan #15 is tackled by safety Josh Hayes #1 of the Kansas State Wildcats during the first quarter at AT&T Stadium on December 03, 2022 in Arlington, Texas.  (Photo by Tim Heitman/Getty Images)

Max Duggan’s efforts in the fourth quarter weren’t enough for TCU to complete another comeback win in the Big 12 title game. (Photo by Tim Heitman/Getty Images)

Kansas State edged TCU into fourth place to earn a 31-28 victory in overtime in the Big 12 title game and potentially jeopardize TCU’s college football playoff hopes.

TCU RB Kendre Miller was stopped just short of the goal line on the first possession of overtime. Kansas State’s Ty Zentner then took the game-winning field goal into K-States possession to give the Wildcats their first Big 12 title since 2003.

The Horned Frogs (12-1) entered the Big 12 title game as one of three undefeated teams in college football. While the loss could jeopardize TCU’s playoff chances, it shouldn’t. Especially given USC’s loss to Utah on Friday night.

Kansas State (10-3) led 28-17 in the fourth quarter, but TCU scored 11 points in the last eight minutes to push the game into overtime. TCU QB Max Duggan had a heroic performance on the game-defining TD drive when he rushed — no joke — 95 yards on the 80-yard TD drive, which included a 15-yard penalty for offensive pass interference.

Duggan’s 8-yard TD run cut K-State’s lead to two with 1:51 to go and he hit Jared Wiley for the deciding score. At this point, it seemed TCU would complete another second-half comeback to keep their undefeated season alive. But that didn’t happen in extra time.

What happened in overtime

TCU was ahead of the second and goal on the K-State six, and Duggan appeared inches from the goal line on a second down run.

He was marked a yard short of the end zone, although replays showed the ball was much closer to the goal line than a full yard. But despite prolonged checking, the ball only moved inside the 1 and not where it should have been.

That’s important because Miller finished in third just from the goal line. If the ball had been spotted closer to the end zone, it probably would have scored.

There was also a replay angle from above showing Miller appearing to reach the ball over the goal line. But the play was not reviewed.

Miller was then stuffed well short of the goal line in fourth, and Kansas State just played to a game-winning field goal.

The story goes on

Why TCU should still make it to the playoffs

The Horned Frogs shouldn’t fall below 4th in the leaderboard on Sunday. Assuming Georgia and Michigan win in their conference title games, the Bulldogs and Wolverines will be the top two seeds in the four-team playoffs. TCU could then potentially get in at 12-1 in 3rd place ahead of Ohio State at 11-1. The Buckeyes are out of the Big Ten’s title game after losing to Michigan a week ago.

No way should TCU fall below USC (12-2) and especially Alabama (10-2) as the Crimson Tide are also on the sidelines on Saturday. The Horned Frogs have the best roster strength of any top team due to the strength of the Big 12 in 2022, and have played one more game than Ohio State and Alabama.

But while it’s reasonable to expect TCU to be part of the playoffs, the loss to the Wildcats is understandably causing some uneasiness among TCU fans. After all, this is the same team that was No. 3 last weekend of the 2014 season and found themselves outside of the playoffs despite a big win over Iowa State this week. TCU fans don’t want to relive this scenario.

However, Duggan’s Heisman hopes are a bit more unrealistic than TCU’s playoff hopes. Duggan was clearly in pain after a couple of big hits on Saturday but threw for 251 yards and rushed for 110. A TCU win made it easy to see he could potentially pass USC QB Caleb Williams in the Heisman pecking order after the Trojans’ loss.

But now that TCU also lost in their conference title game, Williams is likely still the Heisman frontrunner.

Kansas State is heading into the Sugar Bowl

With the post-game focus mostly on TCU and playoff scenarios, it’s important to mention the Wildcats’ fantastic season. A worthy Big 12 champion, Kansas State had three quarterbacks in its loss to the Horned Frogs earlier in the season.

With Week 1 starter Adrian Martinez sidelined with an ankle injury, Will Howard has been fantastic in QB. Howard threw for 199 yards and two touchdowns on Saturday and also rushed for another.

Running back Deuce Vaughn was the beginning of the show. He ran 26 times for 130 yards and also had two catches for 30 yards. Vaughn scored K-State’s final TD of Regulation with this phenomenal open-field move.

At 10-3, Kansas State goes into the Sugar Bowl as the Big 12 champion. The Wildcats will likely face Alabama there and have a shot at their first 11-win season since 2012.