The PP would win the general elections if they were held today, by almost four points over the PSOE, which is again losing support in an important month of debate on the amnesty law, which has currently failed for those accused in the trial. according to the February barometer 40dB. for EL PAÍS and Cadena SER. The survey, carried out in the last week of January, reflects a general decline in the left bloc, which is even more pronounced among the Socialists (they lose 0.9 percentage points from one month to the next). The right-wing bloc is growing thanks to a new surge from Vox, which also gains 0.9 percentage points and is in third place with 11.8% voter support, ahead of Sumar, which drops to fourth place (10.9%).
With the upcoming elections in Galicia, the Socialists see their share of the vote drop to 30.5%, which had recovered slightly in the last two months and is returning to the level of December following the inauguration of Pedro Sánchez. The PP is also not recovering, with 34.4% support, falling again for the second month in a row, but the revival of support for Santiago Abascal's Ultra party puts the right-wing bloc well above the left-wing bloc. The barometer, which does not take into account the distribution of seats, shows that only Alberto Núñez Feijóo's party has grown compared to the 23-J elections.
The poll, drawn up based on 2,000 interviews conducted between January 26 and 29 and with a margin of error of 2.2%, shows that only Vox is improving among the four major parties, at a time when in which the Ultra formation sharpened its position on amnesty and distanced itself from the PP. The People's Party has not seen any increase in support, but has a very loyal electorate, a phenomenon from which Vox also benefits. This loyalty explains both the slight decline of the PP compared to the January barometer (where it reached 34.7% support, 1.6 points more than the previous month) and the rise of Vox. Thus, the PP's losses are offset by the rise of Vox, which leads to a strengthening of the right.
This means that the bloc on the right outperforms the bloc on the left by 5.2 percentage points (46.2% versus 41.4%), representing a significant increase in the gap between both factions compared to last month's barometer the gap was only 3.2 points. The debate on the amnesty law, whose opinion was rejected last week in Congress by the joint vote of PP, Vox and Junts, coincides with a result for the Socialists that represents the worst percentage of support since the parliamentary elections of the 23rd century record , which they had already reached in the December barometer of 40dB.
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Alberto Núñez Feijóo's party, despite the second consecutive decline, would currently have 1.3 points more than in the 23J elections (with 33.1% it was the party with the most votes). ), while the Socialists lost 1.2 points (compared to 31.7% in the July parliamentary elections). Despite this month's comeback, Vox continues to have less support than in the last elections, as does Sumar, who is the formation losing the most in the polls compared to this date (down 1.4 points).
One of the keys to the evolution of the vote is voter loyalty. While the popular and ultras keep the ranks of their voters close, the supporters of the socialists and Sumar are a little more fickle. Therefore, the PSOE suffers especially in this month of February, as the transfer of votes to the PP increased by 1.2 points. At the same time, Sumar's vote decreases to 4.2% (compared to 9.3% previously).
The survey provides important data that distinguishes Vox from the other three major parties. While PSOE, Sumar and PP have more female voters than men (the Socialists get 55.7% of the female vote), support for Santiago Abascal's party is overwhelmingly male, with 62.8% compared to 37.2% of female votes Voices. The survey shows that the gap is widening, suggesting that women's support in the far-right formation continues to weaken while more men vote for Vox.