The increasing suffering of civilians in the Gaza Strip and the expansion of the conflict in the Red Sea are increasing international pressure on the Israeli government to curb its offensive in Gaza and ultimately agree to negotiate the two-state solution openly rejected by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In a context of maximum tension, US President Joe Biden spoke to the Israeli leader this Friday. In their first known conversation since December 23, Biden reiterated to Netanyahu that Israel must accept the future creation of a Palestinian state.
This week's Davos Forum has provided insights into this movement of greater insistence on Israel, in which, with different roles, the involvement of the United States, Arab countries, European actors and perhaps indirectly China, which is watching the disruption, is being watched with concern will trade in the Red Sea, affecting its exports. Netanyahu's rejection of the two-state solution on Thursday afternoon can be interpreted as a public reaction to the growing and only partially public wave of pressure.
The latter is not new: Netanyahu has never considered this option. However, the symptoms of newness are being felt in this growing international pursuit of this goal. In Davos, the clearest message was probably the intervention of Christopher Coons, Senator from Delaware, in a debate, whose voice is significant because he is a very close ally of President Joe Biden and is not subject to the precautions of government positions.
The President of Israel, Isaac Herzog, during his speech at the Davos Forum on January 18th. Associated Press/LaPresse
“The suffering of civilians in Gaza is at an unacceptable level,” Coons said. “Israeli society should reconsider whether Hamas and Fatah's strategy was wise and whether it is sustainable for Israel to continue on this path. I say no. We have been talking about a Palestinian state for a long time without making any progress. “It is time to act boldly,” said the senator. Coons also suggested that Washington was angered by Netanyahu's stance. Asked whether the two-state solution was viable with him in power, the senator said Netanyahu had built a career rejecting it. But now there is an urgent need to act, partly because of the election cycle. A return of Donald Trump to the White House would in all likelihood guarantee Netanyahu even more carte blanche than Biden has given him so far.
In an op-ed in the newspaper Politico in a Davos hallway, Coons went further, pointing to the enormous leverage the United States wields that Washington has never used: military aid to Israel. Coons was prepared to change the terms of support, presumably downwards. U.S. military support is key to Israel's superiority, and in addition to all the historic supplies, the Biden administration has continued this support even bypassing Congress under the current circumstances of Israel's attack on Gaza. Washington has criticized attacks that kill civilians but continues to supply the bombs that kill them. Many experts consider Coons a reliable indicator of Biden's mindset, and there was a feeling in Davos that the US government has reached a high level of weariness with Netanyahu and is aware of the damage of continuing, prompting a rethink leads.
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The two-state solution was the mantra repeated by virtually all political leaders who demonstrated in Davos this week. Significantly, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud said in the same Coons panel: “It is important to note that there is a general consensus here,” he noted, referring to the two-state solution. Asked whether Saudi Arabia would recognize Israel as a state as part of a political agreement that includes a state for the Palestinians, the minister replied: “Without a doubt.”
Jake Sullivan, White House security adviser, made it clear in a speech at a plenary session that the inevitable solution framework is the one that provides for two states with security guarantees for Israel, reflected primarily in the normalization of relations with the countries with which Arabs live to whom this hasn't happened yet. The Financial Times newspaper reported this week that Arab countries are preparing a plan in this direction.
A group of people walk among collapsed buildings in Al Maghazi refugee camp in central Gaza on January 19. MOHAMMED SABER (EFE)
Force peace
Against this backdrop of growing unrest with Israel, one can read the statement by EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell on Friday, in which he considered that the two-state solution “will be imposed from abroad must”. Peace” and has pointed to Israel as a source of funding for Hamas. However, the EU suffers from internal disagreements over how far it should push the Israeli leadership, not least because of Germany's caution.
At a summit of non-aligned countries taking place in Rwanda and attended by 120 countries, several heads of state and government expressed clear rejection of Israel's response to the Hamas attack.
These diplomatic moves come after more than 100 days of conflict following the Hamas attack on Israel. The Israeli response is causing a level of suffering among Palestinian civilians that makes the outrage generated in societies across much of the world extraordinary. The expansion of the conflict in the Red Sea affects a very important sea route and therefore has consequences on a global level, as Sullivan said. Additionally, in parallel turmoil following the major attack in Kerman earlier this year, Iran has bombed allied countries Iraq, Syria and Pakistan to target suspected terrorists.
Experts continue to believe that Iran and its ally Hezbollah have no political intention to escalate the conflict, as evidenced by the fact that they have made no attempt to do so in these more than three months. But on the one hand, tense situations increase risks and unwanted incidents. On the other hand, Iran does not maintain complete control over its allies, and the Houthis firing on merchant ships from Yemen appear to be acting on their own initiative rather than at Tehran's suggestion, according to many experts. Even if there is no will, “the risk of full escalation remains real,” said Sullivan.
Internal and external criticism
But even if this does not happen, the situation has reached a point where the interest of many key players in taking measures to contain the crisis is already very high. Many Western countries, particularly the United States, are facing sharp criticism both within their societies and in the rest of the world for their response to Israel's bombings, which is seen as senseless. Arab leaders face similar pressures in their societies.
The trade disruption takes the crisis to another level for China. Although the Houthis assure that they will not attack Russian or Chinese cargo ships, the chaos and danger in these waters is very high and influences the decisions of shipping companies. It is no coincidence that Beijing issued a statement this Thursday calling on “all relevant parties” to ensure the safety of shipping in the Red Sea. Beijing has leverage in the region due to its close ties with Iran, as Iran has its major trade supplier in China due to stifling Western sanctions.
China has brokered the resumption of ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which maintains a fragile ceasefire in the fight against the Houthis in Yemen. And it is also a close ally of Pakistan, which now maintains tensions with Tehran because of the Iranian shooting and Pakistan's response. Islamabad is preparing to hold elections and is therefore facing a moment of high political tension.
This is the context that induces the logic of the transition to a new phase of pressure. However, there is no guarantee that this will take sufficient shape to have a significant impact. For decades, the United States has never made any decisions to stop Israel, neither in its colonization and occupation nor in its military operations. It remains to be seen whether that will finally happen. Even if that happens, it remains to be seen whether Netanyahu, whose political life depends on this conflict continuing at maximum intensity, will give in to it. The same as the Houthis, although there is pressure from Tehran – and further afield from Beijing – to stop the bombing of ships.
A group of Houthi fighters in a vehicle in Sanaa on January 14. AP
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