The coming year is likely to be an extraordinary challenge for democracy around the world. Several factors combine to make 2024 exceptional. Firstly, the sheer nature of the electoral calendar, which is majestic, with almost half of humanity called to the polls and which includes major countries with turbulent internal situations. Then the context in which this calendar develops, with a geopolitical panorama marked by a tension between democracies and authoritarian regimes unknown for decades, with the emergence of generative artificial intelligence, with new shadows on freedom of expression, with a slowdown period and a Amount of accumulated debt.
Democracy faces this momentous test, weakened by years of erosion on a global scale. “Democracy is threatened. Authoritarianism is advancing. Inequalities are increasing. And hate speech is on the rise. Faced with these challenges, “agree” has become a dirty word,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned in his speech to the General Assembly last September.
Major international studies agree that there has been a deterioration over the years, with more countries reporting declines than improvements each year. The V-dem Institute, for example, assumes that the balance of democracy in the world will have fallen back to the level of 1986, i.e. before the fall of the Iron Curtain, in 2022. Freedom House also charts a period of global democratic decline that has lasted 17 years – although the most recent, 2022, was the least negative period of the series. In some countries there have been coups and relapses into situations of pure autocracy – there have been several cases in Africa in recent years, most recently in Niger and Gabon. In many other countries, the democratic character remains, but its defining characteristics have been weakened, from the rule of law and separation of powers to freedom of expression and equality. According to Freedom House, this happens to varying degrees of intensity and severity in India, the United States, Israel and Hungary.
“The year 2024 will see an explosion of electoral activity around the world,” says Kevin Casas-Zamora, secretary general of the Sweden-based International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance. “The problem is that the integrity of elections around the world is under attack. Many of these elections are held under conditions that include, among other things, lack of fair competition, widespread misinformation, or co-optation of the electoral authority. In other cases, elections, far from being an affirmation of democracy, can lead to results that accelerate tendencies that are very detrimental to it.”
“It is very likely that this wave of elections will make even more visible the trend towards the deterioration of the quality of democracy even in very consolidated democracies,” Casas-Zamora continues. “What we are seeing around the world is a proliferation of what Guillermo O'Donnell, the great Argentine political scientist, called 'low-intensity democracies', with growing inequalities, obvious weaknesses in the rule of law and serious problems in access to fundamental rights.” .”
Join EL PAÍS to follow all the news and read without restrictions.
Subscribe to
Below is a look at some of the key aspects of this key year for democracy.
The calendar
The alignment of the electoral stars forms a cycle of unusual political relevance. Around 70 countries plan to hold presidential or parliamentary elections. Among them are some that are fundamental to the present and the global future of the democratic model, such as the United States – the most important world power -, India – the most populous and diverse country -, the EU – a reference bloc in terms of rights – or Indonesia ” greater Muslim democracy.” The competition for power will undoubtedly be fierce, and in some cases probably unclear. Election campaigns are critical moments for democracies.
The United States is heading into the election torn by a level of polarization that experts agree is extremely high. A victory for Trump, the politician who encouraged the storming of the Capitol, is plausible. Just like a close result that increases the tension. “Whatever the outcome, but especially if Trump is elected, the deep dysfunction of democracy in the United States is one of the greatest threats to the health of democracy on a global scale,” Casas-Zamora said. “Just as the United States played a key role in the process of global democracy expansion in the second half of the last century, the increasingly clear signs of deterioration in North American democracy complicate the work of promoting the liberal democratic model as an attractive political option .”
India will vote under the thick shadow of democratic decline denounced by international institutions and opponents. Modi and his Hindu nationalist project, which leaves the Muslim minority of around 200 million people feeling excluded, have a good chance of winning a third consecutive term in office. Regardless of its proponents, there is widespread concern about what this could mean for India's abandonment of its secular and inclusive constitutional consensus and, ultimately, for its democratic quality.
Although the European elections are of a different nature, they will be an important test of democracy, of course for the approximately 450 million EU citizens, but also for the rest of the world, given the bloc's economic and regulatory strength. EU High Representative for Foreign Policy Josep Borrell said at the Grand Continent Summit, an annual conference organized a few days ago in the Aosta Valley (Italy) by the magazine of the same name: “The European elections will be influenced by these two wars (Ukraine and Gaza) and its consequences. They will be an answer to all of this. I'm afraid of one thing. I'm scared of fear. Let Europeans follow their fears. Parties that use fear as an argument and give bad answers to good questions can win popular support. We can see a rise of right-wing extremist forces. If the political forces do not present a clear analysis of the dangers, if we are unable to do so, I think the European elections will be just as dangerous as the American ones.”
The geopolitical environment
The high tensions in the area of international relations will weigh on the extraordinary 2024 election cycle. For years, there have been numerous attempts, particularly from Russia, to influence public opinion in other countries, either by fomenting discord and polarization within Western societies or by promoting rejection of Western countries in societies in the so-called Global South. A context of confrontation and competition between unprecedented powers such as the current one suggests that disruptive efforts in electoral processes are now more possible than ever.
Russia has launched an all-out war against Western-backed Ukraine. China is engaged in a tough battle with the United States, full of accusations and misunderstandings, which also involves strengthening relations with third countries in its favor. Furthermore, Moscow and Beijing have left black and white their intention to change the international order and their belief that democracy and human rights are not absolute values but relative concepts subject to different interpretations. It doesn't seem unreasonable to assume that they will try to influence election campaigns. For example, there are already clear signs of Beijing's attempts to influence the elections in Taiwan.
artificial intelligence
Anyone who wants to intervene in electoral processes today has a powerful tool that didn't exist before: generative artificial intelligence. Experts associate digital platforms and especially social networks with increasing polarization. Partly due to its own operating logic, with algorithms that reward controversy and exposure to messages that reinforce beliefs, and partly due to the actions of interested actors. Some see it as a cause, others as more of a propagating reflection. In any case, it is hard to deny that they play a relevant role in polarization.
Now, new technological advances are multiplying the possibilities for spreading messages designed to misinform, confuse, polarize or even incite hatred. The EU has just given the green light to an innovative project to regulate the use of artificial intelligence in order to limit the risks associated with the technology. But the European bloc is a pioneer here. The rest of the world does not yet have regulation, and most countries will have difficulty with it because their markets are small and the battle with the tech giants is complex.
free expression
The election campaigns will take place in an environment characterized by new challenges to freedom of expression. The bans or restrictions on protests in favor of the Palestinian population in countries such as France, the United Kingdom, Germany or the United States represent an extremely controversial episode.
The slowing economy
All this is happening in a global economic environment that, while not as serious as many feared after the outbreak of inflation linked to the war in Ukraine, does not offer idyllic prospects either. Debt has increased since the pandemic, the rise in interest rates has made it less sustainable, inflation has weakened purchasing power, which in most cases has not been and will not be restored. In many countries, this leads to both social unrest and limited government space for action.
There are still structural imbalances in the background that threaten to trigger destabilizing shocks. At the El Grand Continent conference, political scientist Lea Ypi recalled Machiavelli's lesson that the stability of systems depends on a good balance between “i grandi” (the elites) and “il popolo” (the people). Ypi, in a debate on Europe, believed that this balance had not been achieved. The big election season in Europe and the rest of the world may open the tap to destabilizing demonstrations of discontent.
“There are no easy solutions to any of this,” says Casas-Zamora. “Civil mobilization in defense of rights, which remains strong worldwide, is today the only hope for a renewal of the democratic project. This space for civic action must be protected. But this will not be enough if we do not reform democratic systems so that they are better able to cope with societal demands. If democracy does not offer concrete solutions to societal needs, people will look for these solutions in other political models.”
In recent years, democracy has shown important signs of resilience despite negative dynamics. Brazil and Poland, for example, have managed to turn the tide against ultranationalist right-wing leaderships with dubious democratic instincts and practices. It is not impossible to overcome the challenges. However, it is advisable not to underestimate the risks.
Follow all international information on Facebook and Xor in our weekly newsletter.
Subscribe to continue reading
Read without limits
_