The European Council on Foreign Relations predicts “a sharp turn to the right” for the European elections in June. The scenario described by the think tank represents the nightmare of the European left. For the first time in Brussels there would be figures for a center-right parliamentary majority and thus for a European government (EU Commission) without the presence of the Socialists, the parliamentary group the Democratic Party is also active and has ruled Europe for decades.
By applying a statistical model used in previous elections to the latest polls in all member states, ECFR analysts predict a weakening of the two main European parties, the EPP (from 178 to 173 seats) and the PSE (down ten seats). ., but despite this, “we expect the EPP to remain the largest group in Parliament,” they write, “and therefore retain most of the agenda-setting power, including the election of the next Commission President.” The Greens and Renewal Europe factions are declining and are still on the left, while the Left is gaining slightly.
However, the real winners of the European elections will be the right-wing parties, triumphing in nine EU countries, including Italy (where Meloni would go from 6 to 27 MPs), while in France a boom for Le Pen is expected (“potential”) next President French») and in Germany for AfD. “The main winner will be the right-wing radical group Identity and Democracy (where the League is active, editor's note), which we believe will gain 40 seats and emerge as the third largest group in the new party with almost 100 MPs.” Parliament . We also assume that the Group of European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR, where FDI sits, editor's note) will win 18 seats.” Result: “The left-right balance in Parliament will shift drastically to the right move”. Yes, but what majority can be formed? In terms of numbers, a new “Ursula” majority would still be possible and would include 390 seats.
But it would no longer be the only option, not only due to the strong growth of ID and ECR, but also due to the arrival of new elected representatives on the right in parties that are not currently represented in Brussels (like Geert Wilders' PVV) or not registered in groups (like Orbàn’s Hungarian Fidesz). “A “right-wing populist coalition” – consisting of EPP, ECR and ID – will increase its share of seats from 43% to 49%. In addition, the majority of non-attached MPs come from right-wing extremist parties, so with their support a right-wing majority could be formed for the first time in the history of the European Parliament.”
This shift to the right will impact EU policy, “in particular the implementation of the next phase of the European Green Deal”.