Who can still doubt that Donald Trump will be elected for the Republican Party nomination? It has been clear for more than a year that he will come first. Only his opponents in the Republican Party are trying to maintain doubt because of the need to maintain media attention and because the second place is not yet decided.
But the latest polls are merciless. According to a CBSNews/YouGov poll released yesterday, 69% of voters favor Trump, 14% favor Ron DeSantis and 12% favor Nikky Haley, his closest rival.
It would take a political catastrophe for Trump not to become the Republican nominee. Something like a very unlikely decision by the Supreme Court of the United States that would rule that Trump violated the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution and therefore has no right to run for president.
Surveys on the voting intentions of American voters in the presidential election continue to be positive for Trump at one to two percentage points. The gap remains within the margins of error but suggests a consolidation trend.
In other words, the numerous lawsuits Trump is facing are increasing his popularity.
- Listen to international political expert Loïc Tassé on Benoit Dutrizac's show QUB :
catastrophe
The analysis among specialists in American and international politics is almost unanimous: a new Trump presidency would be catastrophic for the United States and the world.
Trump does not understand international politics, as shown by his love of dictators. His determination to divide the federal government is hurting the economy. His government for the rich and by the rich will exacerbate social divisions. It has also failed to curb waves of illegal immigration.
The political problem facing the United States is well known. How is it that a man so dangerous to democracy, the economy and world peace still has the support of nearly half of American voters?
Why is it that politically minded specialists are unable to make clear to Trumpist voters the immense dangers posed by a possible Trump re-election?
- Listen to international political expert Loïc Tassé on Benoit Dutrizac's show QUB :
Maximum emotions
Part of the explanation may lie in the extreme political sentiment in the United States.
In general, voters are left to their own devices between elections. This means that they are rarely used by political parties, except of course at the time of the midterm elections.
However, Trump's campaign for re-election in 2024 began after his defeat in November 2020. Trump was able to keep the emotional excitement of his voters at a high level. This maximum emotional excitement does not encourage reflection, especially since Trump plays the anti-intellectualism card.
The only way to turn the emotional tide is to create a stronger counter-emotion. Joe Biden is unable to do this.