According to the unanimous analyzes of several Western intelligence services, Russia is preparing to take decisive strategic initiatives in Ukraine in the next six months. The Kremlin wants to end the humiliating setbacks the Russians have suffered since the war began in February 2022 at the hands of NATO-advised and armed Ukrainian forces.
Putin believed he could easily take over Kyiv and effect regime change in the first weeks of the war. It reminds me of George W. Bush and his May 2003 “Mission Accomplished” banner announcing the end of military operations in Iraq. Almost 20 years later, 5,000 American soldiers are still fighting in the country.
From defeat to escape
Russia has failed to achieve most of its main goals. Aside from failing miserably to take Kyiv, his forces were pushed back from the strategic cities of Kharkiv and Kherson. And they are still failing to fully occupy Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts on the Russian border. Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian critical infrastructure have not demoralized Ukrainians as the Kremlin had hoped.
Putin is now preparing a major offensive as soon as the weather permits, in a few months. Hints ? Military analysts note that he has signed executive orders raising the age of men eligible for conscription and authorizing conscription for incarcerated criminals. The Wagner mercenary group was already recruiting them and promising them forgiveness if they served 6 months in Ukraine.
In order to have sufficient manpower, the Kremlin must keep in a defensive position all conscripts of the first wave of mobilization who are not already stationed at the front and the conventional Russian forces in the next offensive.
According to intelligence analysts, Russian units are currently training in Belarus and Russia to take part in the grand offensive. And the Russian General Staff is also restructuring to carry out large-scale conventional combat beyond the 2023 offensives. We don’t take any risks.
Big spring offensive
To counter this large-scale Russian attack in the spring, several NATO countries, including Canada, will send tanks – an offensive weapon – to the Ukrainians: the threat of a massive attack by Ukrainian tanks would force the Russians to plan countermeasures what their own to carry out theirs would limit offensive forces available.
In an attempt to bolster popular support for the operation, Kremlin-aligned commentators and influencers have launched a propaganda campaign to scare Russians by telling them everything Russia and its leaders are risking if defeated, and have to answer for his war crimes in international courts.
Putin is preparing for both a major offensive and, if it fails, a protracted war. His so-called “military special operation” became a major conventional war. Well, against his will.
