1705451791 Ukraine What we know about the loss of two Russian

Ukraine: What we know about the loss of two Russian strategic aircraft

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Numerous theories have been circulating since the beginning of the week to explain Russia's loss of one of its reconnaissance aircraft during a mission over the Sea of ​​Azov on Sunday evening. An important tool of Russian aviation has just disappeared from radar screens. That same night, another command aircraft was almost destroyed. Analysis of the available documents allows us to see things more clearly, although certain questions remain, particularly related to the origin of the shootings.

On January 15, 2024, the Ukrainian army announced the destruction of the two aircraft for the first time. The A-50 for aerial detection and the Il-22 as a flying command post. Very quickly, the Ukrainian Air Force released an image claiming this double victory over the Russian Air Force. However, on the account, which is followed by more than 234,000 people on of these two aircraft.

As of this writing, January 16, 2024, the radar aircraft has disappeared without a trace. The plane is believed to have crashed at sea after being shot down by a missile. By comparing various analyst statements and satellite images, we were able to trace the A-50's trail. The plane was already seen parked at Anapa airport, which is close to the Sea of ​​Azov confrontation zone and has reportedly been closed to civilian traffic since the start of the conflict.

Ukrainian media channel 24 understands the following: “The A-50 was shot down immediately after entering service in the Kirillovka region at approximately 21:10-21:15. It stopped responding to tactical aviation requests, and as a result, a Russian Su-30 pilot recorded the fire and crash of an unidentified aircraft.” This statement should be viewed with caution, as it comes from a media report published in one of the on countries involved in the conflict. The same channel adds: “At the same time, an Il-22 was operating in the Strelkovo region. The shooting took place around 9:00 p.m. off the Sea of ​​Azov. The damaged plane wanted to land in Anapa. The pilot called for an evacuation and also called the paramedics and the fire department.”

Recording aired in Ukrainian media attributed to the Il-22 crew (unauthenticated).

Two aircraft that were used for airspace surveillance and as a flying command post would therefore have been attacked a few minutes apart. The first was lost, possibly due to a direct hit, while the second was badly hit, as images published a few hours later show. Ukrainian Army Commander-in-Chief Valeri Zaluzhny released a video showing the radar tracks of the A-50 and Il-22.

Video of radar tracks released by Ukraine (unauthenticated).

Hit by a missile mid-flight

On the afternoon of Monday, January 15, a photo of the damaged tail of a plane caught the attention of the cell RFI verification information. It first appeared on pro-Russian Telegram channels before going viral on social media.

Photo of the damaged IL-22 fin taken at Apana Airport, Russia.

Photo of the damaged IL-22 fin taken at Apana Airport, Russia. © Screenshot/Telegram

A reverse image search shows it hasn't been published yet. We see the tail (drift) of an Iliouchine-22, covered in impacts. The traces left in the metal are characteristic of the explosion of a proximity fuse, i.e. the warhead of a rocket that is designed to explode shortly before impact in order to maximize the weapon's effectiveness. The shower of steel bullets hit about 80% of the aircraft's fin.

The lower part of the fuselage and the tail tip were also affected. Apparently the cigar-shaped piece at the top of the tail has disappeared. However, it is characteristic of the “Zebra” version of the Il-22M, dedicated to the command. This part could have come loose in the explosion or been deleted using image processing software. This cannot be ruled out, since the photo of the tail, which first appeared on Russian networks, appears to have been altered.

In this case, the registration on the back has been hidden, probably to prevent formal identification of the machine. At the end of the afternoon, a trade magazine claimed to have found the original photo on a widely circulated Ukrainian account, in which we can see the last digits of the registration “….5678”. After checking, there is indeed an Ilyushin-22M of the Russian Army with the code RF-95678.

The registration of the damaged fin visible in the photos appears to match this model of the Il-22.

The registration of the damaged fin visible in the photos appears to match this model of the Il-22. © Screenshot/ Jets Photo/ RFI Montage

The aircraft bears the blue and white stripes borrowed from the civilian decoration of the airline Aeroflot (which is not uncommon in Russia for so-called “special aircraft”), although other IL-22 and IL-20 of a fairly similar model are mostly gray painted. The inscription BBC in Russian or VVS in Latin for Voïoienno-Vozdouchnye Sily Rossïi – Russian Air Force and the red star confirm that it is indeed a military machine.

Therefore, we have ample evidence suggesting that the Russian aircraft landed successfully. To add to the confusion, an image of the wreckage of another IL-22 of the same version is circulating on the Internet. This is an almost identical machine, however shot down by PMC Wagner mercenaries on June 24, 2023in Voronezh Oblast.

Crash landing

As far as the circumstances of the landing are concerned, the damage to the aircraft suggests that the controls (direction and elevator) must have lost their effectiveness, but the aircraft remained controllable. Geolocation work revealed that the photo of the heavily damaged aircraft was actually taken at night on the Anapa civilian site. The layout of the buildings and the control tower, which can be seen in the background of the image, corresponds to the layout of the airport.

The fire engine that responded to the runway on the day of the crash landing had already been spotted several months earlier during an organized visit to the same airport. The type and number of the tail visible in the photo match.

Furthermore, at the end of the afternoon, Kiev finally realized that the Russian command aircraft had indeed found refuge in Anapa. Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yuri Ignat, quoted by AFP, said it was irreparable. Alexandre Kots, a war correspondent loyal to the Kremlin, quoted by Agence France Presse, also spoke on his Telegram channel of a “crashed” A-50 aircraft and a “rescued” IL-22. Russian Telegram channel WarGonzo was moved by “the death of our fighters” in reference to the A-50 and also claimed that the second aircraft appeared to be able to “land” despite being damaged.

The Beriev A-50, a central element of the Russian army

This double blow is enough to mark the mood in the ranks of the Russian army. These are actually two core pieces of the Moscow arsenal that were put out of action. The loss for the Russian army is immense. The Beriev A-50, which apparently crashed in the Sea of ​​Azov, is the equivalent of the Awacs for NATO forces. It is a fifty-meter-long, four-engine detection and command engine equipped with a huge radar antenna.

The device allows a look into the depth of the opponent's device. Therefore, it is important in the air system to maintain air superiority. But it is a rare aircraft. The Russian Air Force only has around ten examples, only half of which are in airworthy condition. What is certain is that the Russian Air Force has not been able to use this device continuously since the beginning of the war.

The loss of such a strategic aircraft therefore represents a serious setback for the Russian Armed Forces and, conversely, represents an increase in power for Ukraine, especially given the imminent arrival of F-16 aircraft, which can therefore fly without fear of threat. to be discovered. Moscow, which no longer had naval control over the Black Sea, is now fighting to retain control of the airspace as well.

Team fire?

The exact circumstances surrounding the destruction of two aircraft have not been clearly established. Are they due to Ukrainian rockets or a Russian fire? The doubt remains. The Patriot anti-aircraft systems of the Ukrainian defense were able to reach the aircraft. However, since their range is 160 kilometers, the system inevitably had to be deployed very close to the front line. However, positioning a Patriot system near the front is risky. For this reason, these systems are usually installed near large Ukrainian cities, far from Russian artillery.

But it's not impossible either. Some experts even believe that the Ukrainians have managed to create a so-called “floating” or mobile Patriot system that they move according to missions. This “atypical” system may therefore have surprised the two Russian command aircraft, which believed they were flying in a safe zone.

In addition, the damage caused by the drift of the crashing Il-22M suggests that the missiles used that night against the two Russian aircraft were equipped with a significant military payload, such as the image of those manufactured in North America Patriot the old SA-5 (S-200), which is still available in the Ukrainian arsenal.

However, the deployment of a battery of Patriot surface-to-air missiles is only a hypothesis. Other analysts consider the scenario of an accident to be more likely. On the Russian side, the very poor coordination of land and air forces has been a constant since the beginning of the conflict. Russian defense batteries may well have fired on an unreported aircraft. This option even seems to be favored by Russian military bloggers. In their eyes, fratricidal fire would somehow be less humiliating than admitting that a Western missile could have shot down the very strategic A-50 Beriev.