North Korea says it has conducted a new test with an underwater nuclear weapon
North Korean leader Kim Jongun declared South Korea his “main enemy,” dissolved the peninsula's cooperation and reunification authorities and threatened to start war if they violated “even 0.001 millimeters” of its territory.
This week North Korea tested underwater nuclear drones. The country's government explained that the tests were in response to military exercises conducted jointly by three countries:
- South Korea;
- US;
- Japan.
The drone system, called Haeil 523, was tested on the country's east coast. The date the test took place was not disclosed.
A North Korean government spokesman said the army's underwater weapons were part of equipment designed to deter hostilities from other countries he was referring to the navies of the United States and American allies.
At the moment, Kim hasn't really acted, but that could change. Analysts consulted by AFP assess the situation.
After years of deteriorating relations, the North Korean government declared this week that South Korea was its main enemy and closed agencies working on cooperation between the two countries and a possible reunification of Korea. During a war there were also threats of invasion from the south.
Hong Min, an analyst at the Korean Institute for National Reunification in Seoul, told AFP that it was an important change because “in the past, when there was a threat of armed conflict, there was a support (communication) )channel.” to keep it under control. Now there’s none of it.”
North Korea has abolished all interKorean mechanisms to prevent conflicts from spiraling out of control, says Hong.
“The classification of the South as the North's 'main enemy' is not just rhetoric: words can lead to actions,” he says.
Kim said that has no intention of starting a war, but also has no intention of avoiding it. He declared that he no longer recognized the “de facto” maritime border between the two Koreas, and his army conducted live artillery fire maneuvers in the area for several days.
This raises the possibility that both sides will become involved in a military conflict that could lead to a larger conflict, Hong says.
In addition, North Korea approached Moscow and, according to Americans and South Koreans, provided it with missiles for the war in Ukraine in exchange for help with its satellite program.
South Korea has threatened to respond much harsher to any provocation, a tough stance that also carries risks.
“It is not wise for either South Korea or North Korea to pursue a radical strategy on interKorean issues,” South Korea's Hankyoreh newspaper said in an editorial.
“If North Korea becomes more reckless, we hope the government will focus its efforts on dealing with the situation,” the paper said.
The professor of military science at Sangji Choi Giil University explains in an interview with AFP that the two countries are now at a moment when there is a greater chance of becoming involved in an armed conflict. “Assuming there are civilian and military casualties in a future provocation by the North. We attack the starting point with missiles. “But will we also attack them with our air force?” he asked.
When North Korea bombed a remote border island in Yeonpyeong in 2010, killing four people, South Korean F16 fighter jets were in the air ready to attack, but thenPresident Lee Myungbak called off the action to prevent escalation. “If we have a similar incident, there is no guarantee that air power will not be used in the face of these bellicose calls,” the South Korean government says, the professor says.
The North's response could, in a worstcase scenario, plunge the peninsula into open war, he said.
Possibility of rapprochement?
The prospects for Korean reconciliation have always been bleak, but have become even worse after Kim declared Seoul his greatest enemy, said Soo Kim, a former CIA analyst who now works at LMI Consulting.
“He not only closed the door to the rapprochement, but also padlocked it to make it clear to South Koreans where their relationship stands,” he told AFP.
But this new rhetoric “doesn’t necessarily change North Korea’s calculations,” he added.
The North Korean government has been developing missiles and nuclear weapons for some time, and Kim is waiting for the right time to conduct a seventh nuclear test.
“These weapons do not develop overnight, and the Kim regime's plans to use them as a coercive, threatening and negotiating tool have been its 'modus operandi' for decades,” he argued.
The new rhetoric toward Seoul “seems to fit ideologically with regime survival, justifying Kim's focus on nuclear missiles,” said LeifEric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.
North Koreans “are increasingly aware of their country's economic failures compared to South Korea's successes,” he said. “That is why Kim is doubling down on his military capabilities in the face of external threats to his internal legitimacy,” he explains.
In addition, South Korea will hold general elections in April, with current President Yoon Suk Yeol's party attempting to regain control of the legislature.
“Kim may be trying to punish the Yoon administration for its policies toward North Korea ahead of the general election in April,” Easley said.