Violent Tropical Cyclone Freddy approaches Réunion. At 10 a.m. this Saturday, February 18, it was 1,640 km east-northeast of the island. It should pass as close as possible to the department during the night of Monday 20th to Tuesday 21st February. Reunion is already on cyclone yellow alert.
LH • Posted Feb 18, 2023 at 10:28 am, Updated Feb 18, 2023 at 11:07 am
Intense tropical cyclone Freddy is a particularly strong and compact system, warns Météo France. However, a slight decrease in intensity can be observed in the last few hours. It increases the uncertainty of the forecasts regarding the passage of the system closest to Réunion.
The phenomenon is approaching the Mascarene Islands hour by hour at a speed of 19 km/h. At 10 a.m. this Saturday, February 18, it was 1,640 km east-northeast of Réunion, compared to 1,740 km at 4 a.m.
Since a hurricane threat is possible within 72 hours, the prefect of Reunion issued the yellow hurricane pre-alert at 7 p.m. last night, Friday 17 February. The population is asked to remain vigilant and to inform themselves.
It is also recommended to check and build up your reserves, drinking water, canned food, batteries or even candles and to check the address and telephone number of the accommodation closest to where you live.
Depending on the evolution of the phenomenon in the coming hours, the orange alert may go off 24 hours before the cyclone arrives. Schools and daycare centers will then be closed, but business operations will continue.
With three hours’ notice, the Prefect of Réunion can announce the passage on alert for the imminent approach of the cyclone. The population then has this period of 3 hours to reach their homes and lock themselves in. Traffic beyond these three hours is strictly prohibited.
In the event of exceptional danger, the purple cyclone alarm can be triggered. The population has the same three-hour period to seek shelter.
Intense Tropical Cyclone Freddy’s trajectory is west-southwest but still remains uncertain. According to Météo France forecasters, Freddy will pass north of Rodrigues on Sunday evening, Mauritius on Monday at the end of the day and Réunion between Monday evening and Tuesday morning.
Its course would then take Cyclone Freddy towards Madagascar, to make landfall on the east coast Tuesday night into a mature stage. The location of the landing zone and the timing have yet to be determined.
Violent Tropical Cyclone Freddy is approaching Réunion at a speed of 22 km/h. • ©Weather France
The passage distance is still uncertain, but it is likely to be between 50 and 350 km, as indicated yesterday by Météo France. This Saturday morning, it announces that “given the uncertainties for Mauritius and Réunion, there is a probability between a direct impact and a passage at a distance of 400 km”.
Depending on the transit distance of the phenomenon, the consequences for Reunion Island could be more or less important. Due to its powerful but compact nature, intense tropical cyclone Freddy’s area of influence is small. In fact, few effects would be felt beyond 200 km from its center.
The evolution of the phenomenon and therefore the predictions of its trajectory in the coming hours will therefore be crucial.
Below average in size and without a surrounding edge band, the phenomenon is currently causing very violent winds with gusts of up to 260 km/h.
Violent Tropical Cyclone Freddy should pass closer to Réunion at a speed of 30 km/h, warns Philippe Caroff, meteorologist at Météo France Réunion Océan India. Such speed could lead to a sudden deterioration in time. The rain would not be the conspicuous element, the rain episode would then be relatively short.
On the other hand, the swell at night could be “spectacular”. Extremely strong winds were felt when the system passed very close to Réunion. But the forecasts initially expect gusts of 100 to 120 km/h, i.e. for a transit distance of more than 200 km.
In any case, weather conditions should worsen as the phenomenon approaches. The first effects were already being felt on Monday afternoon.