War between Hamas and Israel
A ceasefire seems to be on the horizon. According to Frédéric Encel, doctor of geopolitics and lecturer at Sciences Po Paris, Hamas has “a knife at its throat.”
Published on January 30, 2024 12:14 p.m
Reading time: 3 minutes
Frédéric Encel, doctor of geopolitics, was a guest of “8h30 franceinfo” on Monday, December 4, 2023. (FRANCEINFO / RADIOFRANCE)
“We are just a few weeks away from the collapse of Hamas,” assured Frédéric Encel, doctor of geopolitics and lecturer at Sciences Po Paris, on Franceinfo on Tuesday, January 30. A ceasefire appears to be emerging after talks between senior American, Israeli and Qatari officials in Paris on Sunday. “Very important and productive work has been done,” said Antony Blinken. Hamas calls for a “full” ceasefire before an agreement on the release of Israeli hostages. “It is true that we are getting closer,” says Frédéric Encel, but “there will be no ceasefire,” he insists. In his opinion, Hamas “has the knife at its throat.” He has no choice but to demand an end to the fighting.
franceinfo: Should we understand that we are getting closer to an agreement today? ?
Frederic Encel: An agreement on a ceasefire or a humanitarian pause, as there was, yes, it is true that we are getting closer. Certainly not a ceasefire.
“There will be no ceasefire.”
Frédéric Encel, Doctor of Geopolitics
Deep down, the Americans, the Europeans and, above all, the whole world want it. On several occasions, Mr. Blinken and Mr. Biden have twisted Netanyahu's arm to make this happen. But the most important thing is the ceasefire.
What should we understand behind Hamas's call for a ceasefire?
You have to understand that he has the knife at his throat. Even if the Israelis have taken very hard blows today and the war goals are still extremely vague, today any analyst will tell you mechanically and militarily: Either way, Hamas cannot win. He suffered much harder blows than the Israelis. In other words, every day, every week that passes, in one way or another strengthens the Israeli warring factions over the Hamas warring factions. What Hamas is demanding today is no longer just a humanitarian ceasefire like it was two and a half months ago, but an actual ceasefire, that is, an end to the fighting.
Given its situation, does Hamas still value the release of prisoners in Israel?
It is important for Hamas today to show the Palestinian people that it is capable of doing what the Palestinian Authority is unable to do, namely freeing Palestinian prisoners. We know how important it is for the people of Palestine that the prisoners return. But compared to two or three months ago, it is even more important for Hamas to simply survive. However, in my opinion, we are only a few weeks away from the collapse of Hamas.
Qatar speaks of remarkable progress after a meeting between the director of the CIA, US intelligence and senior Egyptian, Israeli and Qatari officials in Paris on Sunday. Was this meeting essential?
Yes. We find important countries. Qatar, of course, because it irrigates everyone and especially Hamas. Egypt, which has no choice, is the state that borders the Gaza Strip to the south. But also France. The French like to laugh when it comes to foreign affairs. But I keep repeating that basically right behind the United States, the absolutely indispensable country in the Middle East, the country that has the most leverage in terms of political and military partnership in the region, it is actually France .