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On Saturday, 25 people were killed in a bomb attack in Belgorod, Russia. The next day, four people were killed and 13 injured in a Ukrainian attack on the Moscow-controlled city of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine.
Published on March 1, 2024 3:07 p.m
Reading time: 3 minutes
Vehicles are damaged after a bomb attack in Belgorod, Russia, December 30, 2023. (EMIL LEEGUNOV / ANADOLU / AFP)
A new escalation between Moscow and Kyiv. There have been episodes of violence in Russia and Ukraine in recent days. On Saturday, December 30, 25 people were killed in a bomb attack in Belgorod, Russia, following a rocket attack on Ukraine the day before that Kiev described as “massive” and which left about forty people dead. The attack in Belgorod was the deadliest for civilians in Russia since the conflict began.
The next day, on the night of Sunday, December 31, to Monday, January 1, four people were killed and 13 injured in a Ukrainian attack on Donetsk, a Moscow-controlled city in eastern Ukraine, according to a deployed official . “The enemy wanted to inflict as much damage as possible on the civilian population,” said Denis Pushilin, head of the Donetsk “Republic,” emphasizing that these attacks “make no sense at the military level.”
In retaliation for these unprecedented attacks on Russian soil, President Vladimir Putin promised to step up his offensive. “We will intensify attacks, no crime against civilians will go unpunished, that is a certainty,” he said on Monday during a visit to a military hospital.
Doubts about the true target of the attacks
“So far, Ukrainian attacks have focused on military targets, many of which were in the Belgorod region,” an article in Le Monde points out. Or in telecommunications networks or in the electrical system, like in October. But this time the strikes hit “right in the center of the city, where people go, before New Year's Eve,” Vladimir Putin denounced on Monday. Carole Grimaud, specialist in Russian geopolitics and vice-president of the Geneva Geostrategic Observatory, reminds: “There have already been attacks by Ukrainian forces on Russia, with Belgorod being a target of Ukrainian defense,” reminds Franceinfo. “There have been so many civilian casualties.”
The question remains whether civilians were the target of this attack. “Immediately after the attack, the Russian Defense Ministry stated that the damage was due to the interception of Ukrainian missiles,” reports Ulrich Bounat, a geopolitical analyst for Central and Eastern Europe, citing the Russian Defense Agency. Russian press Interfax. Later, the Russian version changed, and Vladimir Putin called the Belgorod bombing a “terrorist act.” “The previous explanation has disappeared in favor of a simplified version that the Ukrainians targeted civilians,” reports the associated researcher at Open Diplomacy. But he lists several elements that confirm the initial report of a botched interception. First, images from downtown Belgorod show “the tail of a missile that looks very similar to an S-300 anti-aircraft missile.” Then “the Russians are changing their version because the original version does not correspond to the official narrative that Russia wants to promote, and Then the propaganda reformulates the message.” As for the attack on Donetsk, it “apparently targeted a gathering of Russian soldiers and bloggers,” adds Ulrich Bounat.
A change in strategy would be “counterproductive”
Volodymyr Zelensky himself “no longer speaks of the counteroffensive,” but, according to Carole Grimaud, “puts the emphasis on defense,” at the end of a year marked by the failure of his summer counteroffensive and the almost complete freeze on the front line. As in an interview with The Economist published on Monday, in which the Ukrainian leader reiterated that Kiev's most urgent mission is to “defend the East and save the major cities in the east and south.” As well as the isolation of Crimea. This final target could cause civilian casualties – the Kerch Bridge is “used daily by residents,” describes Carole Grimaud – but this would be “collateral damage” and not “deliberate attacks on civilians, as can be the case with Russians”. Maternity wards, hotels, etc.,” adds Ulrich Bounat.
According to the two specialists, in the coming weeks it will be necessary to analyze the behavior of Ukrainians in order to find out whether there is actually a change in Kiev's strategy towards the civilian population. This would be “completely counterproductive,” but Ulrich Bounat notes: “From a Western perspective, the Ukrainians are the ones being attacked in this war and the Russians are the aggressors. This attitude triggers a wave of international solidarity. If Kiev decides to do so, attacking civilians would pose a real problem for Western support.”