It would be a “calculated attempt” to ensure that Zelenskyi’s government retained the support of allied countries. At the same time, it is a message to the President of Ukraine
The White House would urge Ukrainian leaders to publicly open themselves to negotiations with Russia, rather than repeating – as they are currently doing – that any negotiations will be impossible as long as Vladimir Putin remains in power. However, according to some Washington Post sources, that would not be a way for the Biden administration to push Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the negotiating table, but a “calculated attempt” to ensure that the Kyiv government retained the support of the allied countries they found themselves in the struggle with an internal public opinion hesitant about the idea of keeping a war going for years. The United States does not believe that Putin is truly ready to negotiate, but Zelenskyy’s closure – which has become increasingly rigid as the conflict unfolds – is raising concerns in some countries in Europe, Africa and South America.
This discussion, the newspaper in the US capital explains, illustrates the delicate position of the White House: on the one hand, it pledges help to the Ukrainians “for as long as necessary,” as National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said on his trip to Kyiv, where he guaranteed that the American position will not change regardless of the outcome of the midterm elections, and as confirmed by the new aid coordination command Sag-U, which has just announced that it will manage western aid over the long term; on the other hand, it is confronted with a conflict that has hit the world economy hard and that, after decades, is reviving fears of nuclear war.
Therefore, although they have always reiterated that it is up to Zelenskyi alone to decide whether and when to negotiate, the United States cannot remain indifferent to the possibility of a diplomatic solution: according to American officials, in fact, at the moment the Kyiv army is trying to to get the best possible result in the field before winter comes, when fighting will slow down and a window for diplomacy will open. At this point, Washington believes, despite his rigid stance, that President Zelenskyy may be ready to negotiate and perhaps make concessions in order to achieve peace. At least that’s the message – and it’s not the only one – that was delivered to him from overseas.
The time factor
There are now many scenarios chasing each other in the conflict. They often revolve around the time factor, with different interpretations. One argues that Vladimir Putin wants to “freeze” positions on the fronts as much as possible and use the mass of reservists to hold the occupied territories. Hence the work of trenches, bunkers and multiple lines of defense to make any Ukrainian offensive difficult and expensive. Not only. Despite the announcements, recruit mobilization is never complete because it has not met expected quotas and therefore continues in an eerie fashion. The goal of the neo-Tsar is to ultimately lead negotiations that will hold large parts of the country in his hands while the rest of Ukraine is ravaged by raids with dramatic, even unsustainable living conditions.
The other “design” concerns the decisions taken by Kyiv. The resistance, as mentioned, excludes any compromise and wants full territorial integrity, but there are those who do not rule out a middle ground. In fact, as they think in Washington, Ukraine could try to achieve some important achievements and then start negotiations with the Kremlin. As usual, visions of the future come to terms with the reality of war, in which nothing is set in stone. Many variables: the strength of the Western coalition, the price that Ukrainian civilians pay every day, the possibility of waves of refugees, the “state” of Russian reservists, the ability of the Zelenskyi army to expand the advance thanks to Western material and the training of the Troops, the possibility of the occupiers to try their own initiative in the spring. It’s sure to be a very hard winter for the time being.
November 6, 2022 (change November 6, 2022 | 18:54)
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