A year after the start of the war, the EU’s dependence on Russian energy sources has increased from 36% of total energy to 9.7%, writes the European Commission. According to a Eurostat estimate, the sanctions weighed on European GDP growth by 2.5%. And many giants that have had to shed their investments in Russia – Ikea, Volkswagen, Lego, Netflix TikTok, Samsung, Visa, MasterCard, BP – are now studying future earnings from these markets. In the meantime, the EU has already spent 30 billion in economic and financial aid, and a further 18 are planned for 2023, to which must be added those of the individual member countries.
In 2022, Estonia donated 1% of its GDP to Kiev, a huge sum, and Poland, Lithuania, Slovakia, Sweden and the Czech Republic also went in this direction. Germany and the Czech Republic also donated heavily. France, minus Italy, Spain and Belgium, while in the queue we find Romania, Cyprus, Slovenia and Ireland. The fact is that for the first time Europe has overtaken the United States, Kiev’s traditional financial backer.
The Preservation of the Union
During his first trip to Europe, Volodymyr Zelenskyy turned up in the capitals with a shopping list. The Ukrainian President knows the weapons available in the depots of every EU country. And he made very specific requests to all of them. “He knew exactly what he needed and what to ask for,” commented a German diplomat. Even European governments know exactly what Ukraine needs and the fears of the countries closest to Russia’s borders. In fact, Finland and Sweden rushed to ask to join NATO. Poland and Romania were grazed and hit by rockets. While Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania fear Russian expansionism. There are many factors that can bring the whole continent to war. And tearing apart a European Union that has different interests and problems than Moscow.
The reasons for this unconditional support, including military support, are to defend the principle of territorial sovereignty of a country that is not in the EU but is still in Europe and to reassure those closest to the Russian border . The risk for the whole continent is to remain defenseless against itself. “We had forgotten the war from our intellectual horizon,” says European Foreign Minister Josep Borrell, “and the proof of this is our very low military stocks and the limited capacity of our defense industry to supply them.” From data from the International Institute for Strategic Studies show that the combined availability of Germany, France and Italy does not reach 4,000 modern tanks. France will send some of its Amx-10 light tanks to Ukraine, Germany 14 Leopard tanks and missile defense systems; Italy has not commented on what it will broadcast. Holland has given the green light for the delivery of some F-16s. Slovakia has decided to send its old Soviet Mig-29 aircraft. Warsaw, sensing an imminent threat, will immediately deliver the requested Leopard tanks, even if they are not of the latest generation, and anti-aircraft guns. Spain will «contribute» with spare parts, and together with Portugal – 7 Leopards. The Baltic Stinger defense systems, 4 helicopters, drones and ammunition. Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas says “I don’t have jets to give away, but if I had them I would give them” and reiterates that we are even late because Russia has now fully switched to a war economy and organized a war industry where People work 24 hours a day in three shifts a day
The fears of the neighbors
The Russians don’t give official figures, but according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IIss) they have 15,857 tanks, including the old ones. The numbers rise to 30,122 when armored vehicles are added (according to the Global Firepower Institute).
During the war, Moscow uses a mass of 20,000 artillery shells a day, a quantity that takes all of Europe a month to produce. To give you an idea, that’s twenty times as many bullets as Ukraine fires. So everyone united in military aid to Kiev, albeit with some differences in timing and methods
Finland, which also shares a 1,300 km border with Russia, is reluctant to give up its leopards. The same applies to Sweden, which classifies the matter as “not urgent”. The problem of not alarming public opinion should also be considered: “Many European governments – revealed the Estonian Prime Minister – are sending arms, but are demanding silence”. After all, can Europe afford any other choice while Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic fear for their own sovereignty? Unanimity in the war effort is currently considered mandatory. “Europeans and Ukrainians have linked their destinies,” wrote the Washington Post.
Kiev’s accession to the EU
2022 has also sharpened the knot surrounding Kiev’s accession to the European Union, which has been going on for more than twenty years. “Kiev’s future is ours,” proclaimed José Manuel Barroso, President of the European Commission in 2005. And there was Germany, too, pushing for integration. In the same year, the enlargement commissioner Olli Rehn (Finn) called for avoiding a “super-expansion” towards Kiev. In 2011, foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton (British) slowed down the accession process. In 2016, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker warned that “it will be 25 years before Ukraine joins the EU”. And last year, former EU Commissioner Günther Verheugen (German) spoke of 10-15 years. In essence, this hug has always been very contrasting, but after the aggression in Moscow, the process has accelerated. Last June, Kiev was granted candidate country status, but in the midst of war, can we talk about impending EU accession?
Who pushes, who brakes
The Poles and Lithuanians have always pushed for a quick procedure: a rush that overtakes and displeases other historic candidates who would already have the numbers, such as Albania or North Macedonia. But here, too, the 27 member states do not think in the same way. In 2016, for example, the Netherlands rejected the first free trade agreement between Ukraine and the EU in a referendum at the urging of the populist party allied with the Lega. This “no” forced Europe to change the text of the agreement and also to insert a commitment “not to provide security guarantees, financial assistance and military assistance to Kiev”. Now some countries are wondering what happened to that pledge, particularly as it relates to military aid. In summary, everyone agrees that Ukraine should join the EU, with some hesitation about the timing. Germany, dependent on Russian gas and urged to train troops in Kiev, is not to rush. France is treading water because it has an open diplomatic channel with the Kremlin. While Italy is marked by the doubts of the Lega and Forza Italia, the governing parties closest to the Russians.
Negotiations at zero
The ceasefire negotiations have not made a single step: Russia and Ukraine are sticking to their positions. Zelenskyy’s proposed ten-point plan for a deal with Putin (restoring Ukraine’s territorial integrity, including Crimea) is considered unacceptable. There is no single European proposal, but scattered initiatives. The United Nations Security Council is paralyzed by Russia’s veto and China’s abstention. Those who allow the attacked to defend themselves with heavy arms shipments are Great Britain and the USA. And it will be Biden who will set the timing for real negotiations. Meanwhile, the obscene tally of death and destruction continues.